Filing Flows › Powell Industries (POWL) › Takeover & LBO
Is Powell Industries (POWL) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($195.92 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 4.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.85× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $195.92 | today's $150.71 plus 30% |
| × shares | 36.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $7.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $634M | |
| = Enterprise value | $6.5B | 27.7× EBITDA of $236M |
| Fees | $131M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.3B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $5.4B | 81% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.2B | $253M | $99.4M | $100M | $1.2B |
| Year 2 | $1.3B | $268M | $91.7M | $118M | $1.1B |
| Year 3 | $1.4B | $282M | $82.7M | $136M | $945M |
| Year 4 | $1.4B | $293M | $72.3M | $153M | $792M |
| Year 5 | $1.5B | $302M | $60.6M | $170M | $622M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 20.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $6.2B | |
| − Debt left | $622M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $5.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.05× | on $5.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $150.71.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $165.78 | 5.8% |
| 20% | $180.85 | 3.1% |
| 30% | $195.92 | 0.9% |
| 40% | $210.99 | −1.1% |
| 50% | $226.06 | −2.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $236M | 20.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $8.5M | |
| Capital spending | $12.2M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $634M | |
| Share price | $150.71 | on Oct 23, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 7.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Powell Industries would cost about $210.99 a share, $7.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $172.86 | $6.3B |
| Median | 40% | $210.99 | $7.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $241.44 | $8.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.85× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Powell Industries' latest quarter
Powell Industries, Q3 FY26: revenue $312M (+9% year over year), operating margin 20.6%, net earnings $52.2M, operating cash flow $100M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Powell Industries being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Powell Industries?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($195.92 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Powell Industries cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Powell Industries would cost about $210.99 a share, $7.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.