Filing Flows › Prog Holdings (PRG) › Takeover & LBO
Is Prog Holdings (PRG) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($45.18 a share) would return about 13% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $37.62 a share (8% against today's $34.75). Historically 4.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.96× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $45.18 | today's $34.75 plus 30% |
| × shares | 40.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $866M | |
| − Cash | $109M | |
| = Enterprise value | $2.6B | 9.3× EBITDA of $277M |
| Fees | $51.8M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $1.1B | 42% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.0B | $299M | $117M | $105M | $1.4B |
| Year 2 | $3.2B | $320M | $109M | $127M | $1.3B |
| Year 3 | $3.4B | $337M | $98.9M | $149M | $1.1B |
| Year 4 | $3.5B | $351M | $87.4M | $171M | $972M |
| Year 5 | $3.6B | $362M | $74.4M | $191M | $781M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 7.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $2.8B | |
| − Debt left | $781M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.83× | on $1.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 12.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $34.75; the IRR reaches 20% at $37.62 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $38.23 | 19.5% |
| 20% | $41.70 | 16.1% |
| 30% | $45.18 | 12.9% |
| 40% | $48.65 | 10.2% |
| 50% | $52.12 | 7.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $277M | 10.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $41.7M | |
| Capital spending | $15.6M | |
| Debt | $866M | |
| Cash | $109M | |
| Share price | $34.75 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 28% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Prog Holdings would cost about $48.65 a share, $2.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $39.86 | $1.6B |
| Median | 40% | $48.65 | $2.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $55.67 | $2.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.96× the average). Its figures put it in decile 6 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Prog Holdings' latest quarter
Prog Holdings, Q3 2026: revenue $726M (+26% year over year), operating margin 9.1%, net earnings $37.2M, operating cash flow $108M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Prog Holdings being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Prog Holdings?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($45.18 a share) would return about 13% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $37.62 a share (8% against today's $34.75).
What would a takeover of Prog Holdings cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Prog Holdings would cost about $48.65 a share, $2.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.