Filing Flows › Parsons (PSN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Parsons (PSN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($62.50 a share) would return a loss of about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $28.69 a share (−40% against today's $48.08). Historically 3.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.77× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $62.50 | today's $48.08 plus 30% |
| × shares | 106.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $6.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.4B | |
| − Cash | $297M | |
| + Other claims | $111M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $7.8B | 17.7× EBITDA of $443M |
| Fees | $157M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.4B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $5.6B | 70% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $6.2B | $432M | $187M | $141M | $2.3B |
| Year 2 | $6.1B | $426M | $176M | $146M | $2.2B |
| Year 3 | $6.1B | $427M | $165M | $154M | $2.0B |
| Year 4 | $6.2B | $434M | $153M | $159M | $1.8B |
| Year 5 | $6.4B | $447M | $141M | $168M | $1.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 14.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $6.3B | |
| − Debt left | $1.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $4.7B | |
| Money multiple | 0.84× | on $5.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −3.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $48.08; the IRR reaches 20% at $28.69 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $52.89 | 0.7% |
| 20% | $57.70 | −1.5% |
| 30% | $62.50 | −3.4% |
| 40% | $67.31 | −5.1% |
| 50% | $72.12 | −6.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $6.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $443M | 7.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $137M | |
| Capital spending | $80.9M | |
| Debt | $1.4B | |
| Cash | $297M | |
| Share price | $48.08 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -2.7% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 23% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Parsons would cost about $62.50 a share, $6.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $53.85 | $5.7B |
| Median | 30% | $62.50 | $6.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $62.98 | $6.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.77× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Parsons' latest quarter
Parsons, Q3 2026: revenue $1.7B (+2% year over year), operating margin 6.3%, net earnings $54.2M, operating cash flow $269M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Parsons being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Parsons?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($62.50 a share) would return a loss of about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $28.69 a share (−40% against today's $48.08).
What would a takeover of Parsons cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Parsons would cost about $62.50 a share, $6.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.