Filing Flows › Qualcomm (QCOM) › Takeover & LBO
Is Qualcomm (QCOM) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($203.78 a share) would return a loss of about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $95.91 a share (−39% against today's $156.75). At $224.1B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.45× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $203.78 | today's $156.75 plus 30% |
| × shares | 1,073.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $218.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $13.1B | |
| − Cash | $7.7B | |
| = Enterprise value | $224.1B | 21.8× EBITDA of $10.3B |
| Fees | $4.5B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $56.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $172.0B | 75% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $42.0B | $10.0B | $4.3B | $2.8B | $53.8B |
| Year 2 | $41.5B | $9.9B | $4.1B | $2.9B | $50.9B |
| Year 3 | $41.6B | $9.9B | $3.9B | $3.1B | $47.9B |
| Year 4 | $42.2B | $10.1B | $3.7B | $3.3B | $44.5B |
| Year 5 | $43.5B | $10.4B | $3.4B | $3.7B | $40.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 16.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $175.1B | |
| − Debt left | $40.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $134.2B | |
| Money multiple | 0.78× | on $172.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −4.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $156.75; the IRR reaches 20% at $95.91 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $172.43 | −0.5% |
| 20% | $188.10 | −2.8% |
| 30% | $203.78 | −4.8% |
| 40% | $219.45 | −6.6% |
| 50% | $235.12 | −8.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $43.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $10.3B | 23.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.6B | |
| Capital spending | $2.5B | |
| Debt | $13.1B | |
| Cash | $7.7B | |
| Share price | $156.75 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -2.6% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Qualcomm would cost about $203.78 a share, $218.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $175.56 | $188.4B |
| Median | 30% | $203.78 | $218.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $205.34 | $220.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.45× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Qualcomm's latest quarter
Qualcomm, Q4 FY26: revenue $10.3B (-8% year over year), operating margin 13.1%, net earnings $1.3B, operating cash flow $2.7B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Qualcomm being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Qualcomm?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($203.78 a share) would return a loss of about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $95.91 a share (−39% against today's $156.75). At $224.1B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Qualcomm cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Qualcomm would cost about $203.78 a share, $218.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.