Filing Flows › QuidelOrtho (QDEL) › Takeover & LBO
Is QuidelOrtho (QDEL) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($17.23 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. It already carries 7.6× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 6.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.29× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $17.23 | today's $13.25 plus 30% |
| × shares | 68.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.7B | |
| − Cash | $166M | |
| = Enterprise value | $3.7B | 11.1× EBITDA of $334M |
| Fees | $74.3M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.0B | 51% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.5B | $324M | $141M | $62.4M | $1.8B |
| Year 2 | $2.5B | $319M | $136M | $64.1M | $1.7B |
| Year 3 | $2.5B | $319M | $131M | $69.0M | $1.6B |
| Year 4 | $2.5B | $324M | $126M | $73.6M | $1.6B |
| Year 5 | $2.6B | $334M | $120M | $81.4M | $1.5B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 10.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.4B | |
| − Debt left | $1.5B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.00× | on $2.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $13.25.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $14.58 | 2.0% |
| 20% | $15.90 | 1.0% |
| 30% | $17.23 | 0.0% |
| 40% | $18.55 | −0.9% |
| 50% | $19.88 | −1.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $334M | 12.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $462M | |
| Capital spending | $125M | |
| Debt | $2.7B | |
| Cash | $166M | |
| Share price | $13.25 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, QuidelOrtho would cost about $17.89 a share, $1.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $16.16 | $1.1B |
| Median | 35% | $17.89 | $1.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $19.21 | $1.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 6.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.29× the average). Its figures put it in decile 8 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
QuidelOrtho's latest quarter
QuidelOrtho, Q3 2026: revenue $619M (-12% year over year), operating margin -1.2%, net loss $53.8M, operating cash flow $19.6M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is QuidelOrtho being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy QuidelOrtho?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($17.23 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. It already carries 7.6× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of QuidelOrtho cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, QuidelOrtho would cost about $17.89 a share, $1.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.