Filing Flows › Ferrari N.V. (RACE) › Takeover & LBO
Is Ferrari N.V. (RACE) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($562.19 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $261.80 a share (−39% against today's $432.45). At $98.5B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $562.19 | today's $432.45 plus 30% |
| × shares | 175.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $98.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $0 | |
| = Enterprise value | $98.5B | 35.5× EBITDA of $2.8B |
| Fees | $2.0B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $15.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $85.2B | 85% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $7.4B | $2.9B | $1.2B | $941M | $14.3B |
| Year 2 | $7.6B | $2.9B | $1.1B | $1.1B | $13.3B |
| Year 3 | $7.8B | $3.0B | $1.0B | $1.2B | $12.1B |
| Year 4 | $8.0B | $3.1B | $924M | $1.3B | $10.8B |
| Year 5 | $8.3B | $3.2B | $825M | $1.4B | $9.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 27.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $87.9B | |
| − Debt left | $9.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $78.5B | |
| Money multiple | 0.92× | on $85.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −1.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $432.45; the IRR reaches 20% at $261.80 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $475.70 | 2.4% |
| 20% | $518.94 | 0.3% |
| 30% | $562.19 | −1.6% |
| 40% | $605.43 | −3.3% |
| 50% | $648.67 | −4.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $7.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.8B | 38.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $662M | |
| Capital spending | $485M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $0 | |
| Share price | $432.45 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Ferrari N.V. would cost about $573.00 a share, $100.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $518.94 | $90.9B |
| Median | 32.5% | $573.00 | $100.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $656.46 | $115.0B |
Ferrari N.V.'s latest quarter
Ferrari N.V., FY2025: revenue $7.1B (+7% year over year), operating margin 29.5%, net earnings $1.6B, operating cash flow $2.3B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Ferrari N.V. being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Ferrari N.V.?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($562.19 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $261.80 a share (−39% against today's $432.45). At $98.5B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Ferrari N.V. cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Ferrari N.V. would cost about $573.00 a share, $100.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.