Filing Flows › Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) › Stock forecast & fair value
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) stock forecast and fair value
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) trades at $15.48. 20 analysts' median price target is $22.00 (+42%), from $16.00 to $39.00. Across 13 valuation methods the middle fair value is $11.80 (-24%).
Fair value by method
| Method | Low | Point | High | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/Sales vs peers | $19.76 | $31.06 | $59.42 | +101% |
| EV/Sales vs peers, weighted | $26.24 | $42.02 | $64.56 | +171% |
| Analysts' price targets | $16.00 | $25.40 | $39.00 | +64% |
| Path-to-margin DCF | $1.94 | $5.72 | $9.46 | -63% |
| Path-to-margin DCF, dilution-adjusted | $1.41 | $4.31 | $7.33 | -72% |
| Exit-multiple (venture) method | $6.43 | $11.90 | $27.27 | -23% |
| EV/Sales vs Rule of 40 (all-company fit) | $5.82 | $10.99 | $25.15 | -29% |
| Survival-weighted value | $0.80 | $2.44 | $4.15 | -84% |
| Stage-weighted value (pre-profit / high growth) | $6.62 | $11.80 | $23.77 | -24% |
| Combined forecast (3 months) | $12.68 | $16.10 | $19.94 | +4% |
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical's latest quarter
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Q3 2026: revenue $173M (+8% year over year), operating margin -63.6%, net loss $118M, operating cash flow −$43.0M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
What is the price target for RARE stock?
The median of 20 analysts' 12-month targets is $22.00, +42% from $15.48; the range is $16.00 to $39.00. The average rating is buy.
What is Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical's fair value?
The fair-value methods on Filing Flows (DCF, Monte Carlo, peer multiples and others) put it between $2.44 and $42.02, with a middle value of $11.80 against a price of $15.48. Each method's assumptions are on the page.
Does Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical usually beat earnings estimates?
It beat the consensus EPS estimate in 20% of the quarters on record.
Is RARE stock a buy?
Filing Flows does not give advice. It shows what analysts expect, what each valuation method implies and the figures behind them, read from SEC filings, so you can judge for yourself.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.