Filing Flows › RBC Bearings (RBC) › Takeover & LBO
Is RBC Bearings (RBC) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($600.87 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $313.37 a share (−32% against today's $462.21). Historically 3.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.72× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $600.87 | today's $462.21 plus 30% |
| × shares | 31.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $19.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $710M | |
| − Cash | $89.3M | |
| = Enterprise value | $19.7B | 31.3× EBITDA of $628M |
| Fees | $394M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $16.6B | 83% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.2B | $678M | $264M | $247M | $3.2B |
| Year 2 | $2.3B | $724M | $245M | $295M | $2.9B |
| Year 3 | $2.5B | $764M | $223M | $342M | $2.6B |
| Year 4 | $2.6B | $797M | $197M | $388M | $2.2B |
| Year 5 | $2.6B | $820M | $167M | $431M | $1.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 24.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $20.0B | |
| − Debt left | $1.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $18.2B | |
| Money multiple | 1.10× | on $16.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $462.21; the IRR reaches 20% at $313.37 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $508.43 | 6.0% |
| 20% | $554.65 | 3.8% |
| 30% | $600.87 | 1.8% |
| 40% | $647.09 | 0.1% |
| 50% | $693.31 | −1.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $628M | 31.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $134M | |
| Capital spending | $86.3M | |
| Debt | $710M | |
| Cash | $89.3M | |
| Share price | $462.21 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, RBC Bearings would cost about $647.09 a share, $20.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $530.15 | $16.8B |
| Median | 40% | $647.09 | $20.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $740.46 | $23.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.72× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
RBC Bearings' latest quarter
RBC Bearings, Q2 FY27: revenue $525M (+15% year over year), operating margin 25.1%, net earnings $93.8M, operating cash flow $106M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is RBC Bearings being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy RBC Bearings?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($600.87 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $313.37 a share (−32% against today's $462.21).
What would a takeover of RBC Bearings cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, RBC Bearings would cost about $647.09 a share, $20.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.