Filing Flows › Royal Gold (RGLD) › Takeover & LBO
Is Royal Gold (RGLD) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($297.40 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $175.37 a share (−23% against today's $228.77). Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.46× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $297.40 | today's $228.77 plus 30% |
| × shares | 84.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $25.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $146M | |
| − Cash | $185M | |
| + Other claims | $45.8M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $25.3B | 17.5× EBITDA of $1.4B |
| Fees | $505M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $7.9B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $17.8B | 69% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.8B | $1.5B | $606M | $755M | $7.2B |
| Year 2 | $1.8B | $1.5B | $548M | $820M | $6.3B |
| Year 3 | $1.8B | $1.5B | $486M | $896M | $5.5B |
| Year 4 | $1.9B | $1.5B | $417M | $983M | $4.5B |
| Year 5 | $1.9B | $1.6B | $342M | $1.1B | $3.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 13.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $21.5B | |
| − Debt left | $3.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $18.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.01× | on $17.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $228.77; the IRR reaches 20% at $175.37 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $251.65 | 5.4% |
| 20% | $274.52 | 2.7% |
| 30% | $297.40 | 0.3% |
| 40% | $320.28 | −1.8% |
| 50% | $343.16 | −3.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.4B | 81.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $349M | |
| Debt | $146M | |
| Cash | $185M | |
| Share price | $228.77 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 1.1% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 19% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Royal Gold would cost about $262.86 a share, $22.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 9.5% | $250.50 | $21.3B |
| Median | 14.9% | $262.86 | $22.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 33.6% | $305.64 | $25.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.46× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Royal Gold's latest quarter
Royal Gold, Q3 2026: revenue $465M (+84% year over year), operating margin 65.4%, net earnings $227M, operating cash flow $344M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Royal Gold being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Royal Gold?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($297.40 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $175.37 a share (−23% against today's $228.77).
What would a takeover of Royal Gold cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Royal Gold would cost about $262.86 a share, $22.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.