Filing Flows › Transocean (RIG) › Takeover & LBO
Is Transocean (RIG) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($9.02 a share) would return about 9% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $6.69 a share (−4% against today's $6.94). Historically 5.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.13× the average). Latest signal (2026-10-14): Merger proxy (DEFM14A).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $9.02 | today's $6.94 plus 30% |
| × shares | 1,127.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $10.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $5.0B | |
| − Cash | $499M | |
| = Enterprise value | $14.7B | 10.4× EBITDA of $1.4B |
| Fees | $294M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $7.7B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $7.2B | 48% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.2B | $1.5B | $592M | $695M | $7.0B |
| Year 2 | $4.3B | $1.5B | $538M | $787M | $6.3B |
| Year 3 | $4.5B | $1.6B | $478M | $885M | $5.4B |
| Year 4 | $4.6B | $1.6B | $410M | $988M | $4.4B |
| Year 5 | $4.8B | $1.7B | $335M | $1.1B | $3.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 8.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $14.6B | |
| − Debt left | $3.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $11.4B | |
| Money multiple | 1.57× | on $7.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 9.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $6.94; the IRR reaches 20% at $6.69 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $7.63 | 15.0% |
| 20% | $8.33 | 12.0% |
| 30% | $9.02 | 9.4% |
| 40% | $9.72 | 7.1% |
| 50% | $10.41 | 5.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.4B | 34.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $584M | |
| Capital spending | $123M | |
| Debt | $5.0B | |
| Cash | $499M | |
| Share price | $6.94 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.9% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Transocean would cost about $9.20 a share, $10.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $8.33 | $9.4B |
| Median | 32.5% | $9.20 | $10.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $10.53 | $11.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 5.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.13× the average). Its figures put it in decile 7 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-10-14 · DEFM14A · Merger proxy (DEFM14A)
Transocean's latest quarter
Transocean, Q3 2026: revenue $937M (-9% year over year), operating margin 15.3%, net earnings $26.0M, operating cash flow $174M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Transocean being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-10-14: Merger proxy (DEFM14A). A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Transocean?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($9.02 a share) would return about 9% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $6.69 a share (−4% against today's $6.94).
What would a takeover of Transocean cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Transocean would cost about $9.20 a share, $10.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.