Filing Flows › Gibraltar Industries (ROCK) › Takeover & LBO
Is Gibraltar Industries (ROCK) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($52.13 a share) would return about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $26.77 a share (−33% against today's $40.10). It already carries 6.6× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 4.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.81× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $52.13 | today's $40.10 plus 30% |
| × shares | 29.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.2B | |
| − Cash | $35.2M | |
| = Enterprise value | $2.8B | 15.2× EBITDA of $182M |
| Fees | $55.2M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $999M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $1.8B | 65% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.7B | $196M | $76.4M | $65.3M | $934M |
| Year 2 | $1.9B | $209M | $71.4M | $79.0M | $855M |
| Year 3 | $2.0B | $221M | $65.4M | $92.6M | $762M |
| Year 4 | $2.0B | $230M | $58.3M | $106M | $656M |
| Year 5 | $2.1B | $237M | $50.2M | $119M | $538M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 13.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.1B | |
| − Debt left | $538M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.43× | on $1.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 7.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $40.10; the IRR reaches 20% at $26.77 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $44.11 | 10.6% |
| 20% | $48.12 | 8.9% |
| 30% | $52.13 | 7.4% |
| 40% | $56.14 | 6.0% |
| 50% | $60.15 | 4.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $182M | 11.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $62.4M | |
| Capital spending | $24.5M | |
| Debt | $1.2B | |
| Cash | $35.2M | |
| Share price | $40.10 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 29% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Gibraltar Industries would cost about $53.13 a share, $1.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $48.12 | $1.4B |
| Median | 32.5% | $53.13 | $1.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $60.87 | $1.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.81× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Gibraltar Industries' latest quarter
Gibraltar Industries, Q3 2026: revenue $480M (+54% year over year), operating margin 10.3%, net earnings $11.7M, operating cash flow $1.2M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Gibraltar Industries being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Gibraltar Industries?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($52.13 a share) would return about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $26.77 a share (−33% against today's $40.10). It already carries 6.6× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Gibraltar Industries cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Gibraltar Industries would cost about $53.13 a share, $1.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.