Filing Flows › Rockwell Automation (ROK) › Takeover & LBO
Is Rockwell Automation (ROK) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($486.04 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $278.86 a share (−25% against today's $373.88). Historically 2.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.57× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $486.04 | today's $373.88 plus 30% |
| × shares | 111.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $54.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $3.3B | |
| − Cash | $479M | |
| + Other claims | $2.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $57.1B | 24.2× EBITDA of $2.4B |
| Fees | $1.1B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $13.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $45.2B | 78% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $9.7B | $2.5B | $992M | $1.3B | $11.7B |
| Year 2 | $10.3B | $2.7B | $894M | $1.5B | $10.2B |
| Year 3 | $10.9B | $2.9B | $778M | $1.7B | $8.4B |
| Year 4 | $11.4B | $3.0B | $645M | $2.0B | $6.5B |
| Year 5 | $11.7B | $3.1B | $495M | $2.2B | $4.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 18.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $58.2B | |
| − Debt left | $4.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $53.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.19× | on $45.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $373.88; the IRR reaches 20% at $278.86 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $411.27 | 8.0% |
| 20% | $448.66 | 5.6% |
| 30% | $486.04 | 3.6% |
| 40% | $523.43 | 1.7% |
| 50% | $560.82 | 0.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $9.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.4B | 26.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $322M | |
| Debt | $3.3B | |
| Cash | $479M | |
| Share price | $373.88 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 17% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Rockwell Automation would cost about $523.43 a share, $58.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $428.84 | $47.9B |
| Median | 40% | $523.43 | $58.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $598.96 | $66.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.57× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rockwell Automation's latest quarter
Rockwell Automation, Q4 FY26: revenue $2.3B (+0.7% year over year), operating margin 18.6%, net earnings $346M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Rockwell Automation being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Rockwell Automation?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($486.04 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $278.86 a share (−25% against today's $373.88).
What would a takeover of Rockwell Automation cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Rockwell Automation would cost about $523.43 a share, $58.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.