Filing Flows › Ross Stores (ROST) › Takeover & LBO
Is Ross Stores (ROST) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($305.80 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $94.4B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.39× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $305.80 | today's $235.23 plus 30% |
| × shares | 319.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $97.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.0B | |
| − Cash | $4.3B | |
| = Enterprise value | $94.4B | 24.1× EBITDA of $3.9B |
| Fees | $1.9B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $21.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $74.8B | 78% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $26.5B | $4.2B | $1.6B | $961M | $20.5B |
| Year 2 | $28.3B | $4.5B | $1.6B | $1.2B | $19.3B |
| Year 3 | $29.8B | $4.8B | $1.5B | $1.4B | $17.9B |
| Year 4 | $31.1B | $5.0B | $1.4B | $1.7B | $16.3B |
| Year 5 | $32.0B | $5.1B | $1.2B | $1.9B | $14.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 18.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $93.9B | |
| − Debt left | $14.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $79.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.06× | on $74.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $235.23.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $258.75 | 6.0% |
| 20% | $282.28 | 3.4% |
| 30% | $305.80 | 1.2% |
| 40% | $329.32 | −0.7% |
| 50% | $352.84 | −2.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $24.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $3.9B | 16.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $540M | |
| Capital spending | $870M | |
| Debt | $1.0B | |
| Cash | $4.3B | |
| Share price | $235.23 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Ross Stores would cost about $311.68 a share, $99.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $282.28 | $90.2B |
| Median | 32.5% | $311.68 | $99.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $357.08 | $114.1B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.39× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Ross Stores' latest quarter
Ross Stores, Q2 FY27: revenue $6.3B (+13% year over year), operating margin 17.6%, net earnings $851M, operating cash flow $876M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Ross Stores being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Ross Stores?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($305.80 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $94.4B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Ross Stores cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Ross Stores would cost about $311.68 a share, $99.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.