Filing Flows › Rapid7 (RPD) › Takeover & LBO
Is Rapid7 (RPD) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($16.54 a share) would return a loss of about 19% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 5.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.07× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $16.54 | today's $12.72 plus 30% |
| × shares | 70.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $703M | |
| = Enterprise value | $458M | 7.8× EBITDA of $58.5M |
| Fees | $9.2M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $298M | 5.1× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $169M | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $842M | $57.9M | $22.8M | $26.7M | $271M |
| Year 2 | $842M | $58.0M | $20.7M | $28.8M | $242M |
| Year 3 | $851M | $58.5M | $18.5M | $30.6M | $211M |
| Year 4 | $868M | $59.7M | $16.2M | $33.1M | $178M |
| Year 5 | $894M | $61.5M | $13.6M | $36.1M | $142M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 3.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $200M | |
| − Debt left | $142M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $57.6M | |
| Money multiple | 0.34× | on $169M put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −19.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $12.72.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $13.99 | 15.9% |
| 20% | $15.26 | 0.3% |
| 30% | $16.54 | −19.4% |
| 40% | $17.81 | −37.4% |
| 50% | $19.08 | −41.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $850M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $58.5M | 6.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $44.8M | |
| Capital spending | $8.5M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $703M | |
| Share price | $12.72 | on Oct 15, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -1.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Rapid7 would cost about $16.54 a share, $1.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $14.25 | $1.0B |
| Median | 30% | $16.54 | $1.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $16.66 | $1.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 5.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.07× the average). Its figures put it in decile 7 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rapid7's latest quarter
Rapid7, Q3 2026: revenue $212M (-2% year over year), operating margin 4.2%, net earnings $3.5M, operating cash flow $30.1M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Rapid7 being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Rapid7?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($16.54 a share) would return a loss of about 19% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Rapid7 cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Rapid7 would cost about $16.54 a share, $1.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.