Filing Flows › Republic Services (RSG) › Takeover & LBO
Is Republic Services (RSG) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($324.25 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $157.97 a share (−37% against today's $249.42). At $113.3B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.48× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $324.25 | today's $249.42 plus 30% |
| × shares | 306.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $99.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $14.1B | |
| − Cash | $92.0M | |
| + Other claims | $2.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $113.3B | 21.2× EBITDA of $5.4B |
| Fees | $2.3B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $29.4B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $86.2B | 75% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $20.5B | $5.6B | $2.3B | $1.0B | $28.4B |
| Year 2 | $21.3B | $5.8B | $2.2B | $1.2B | $27.2B |
| Year 3 | $22.0B | $6.0B | $2.1B | $1.4B | $25.9B |
| Year 4 | $22.8B | $6.2B | $2.0B | $1.6B | $24.3B |
| Year 5 | $23.4B | $6.4B | $1.9B | $1.8B | $22.5B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 16.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $107.6B | |
| − Debt left | $22.5B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $85.1B | |
| Money multiple | 0.99× | on $86.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $249.42; the IRR reaches 20% at $157.97 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $274.36 | 3.8% |
| 20% | $299.30 | 1.7% |
| 30% | $324.25 | −0.3% |
| 40% | $349.19 | −2.0% |
| 50% | $374.13 | −3.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $19.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $5.4B | 27.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.9B | |
| Capital spending | $1.9B | |
| Debt | $14.1B | |
| Cash | $92.0M | |
| Share price | $249.42 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 4.1% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 16% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Republic Services would cost about $330.48 a share, $101.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $299.30 | $91.7B |
| Median | 32.5% | $330.48 | $101.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $378.62 | $116.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.48× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Republic Services' latest quarter
Republic Services, Q3 2026: revenue $5.2B (+8% year over year), operating margin 17.7%, net earnings $593M, operating cash flow $1.1B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Republic Services being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Republic Services?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($324.25 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $157.97 a share (−37% against today's $249.42). At $113.3B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Republic Services cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Republic Services would cost about $330.48 a share, $101.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.