Filing Flows › RTX (RTX) › Takeover & LBO
Is RTX (RTX) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($249.44 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $136.36 a share (−29% against today's $191.88). At $370.5B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.44× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $249.44 | today's $191.88 plus 30% |
| × shares | 1,368.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $341.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $37.4B | |
| − Cash | $9.9B | |
| + Other claims | $1.7B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $370.5B | 23.6× EBITDA of $15.7B |
| Fees | $7.4B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $86.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $291.7B | 77% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $103.7B | $16.9B | $6.6B | $5.3B | $80.9B |
| Year 2 | $110.7B | $18.1B | $6.2B | $6.5B | $74.3B |
| Year 3 | $116.7B | $19.1B | $5.7B | $7.7B | $66.7B |
| Year 4 | $121.7B | $19.9B | $5.1B | $8.8B | $57.8B |
| Year 5 | $125.4B | $20.5B | $4.4B | $9.9B | $47.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 18.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $381.0B | |
| − Debt left | $47.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $333.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.14× | on $291.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $191.88; the IRR reaches 20% at $136.36 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $211.07 | 6.9% |
| 20% | $230.26 | 4.7% |
| 30% | $249.44 | 2.7% |
| 40% | $268.63 | 0.9% |
| 50% | $287.82 | −0.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $96.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $15.7B | 16.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $4.4B | |
| Capital spending | $2.9B | |
| Debt | $37.4B | |
| Cash | $9.9B | |
| Share price | $191.88 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 19% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, RTX would cost about $268.63 a share, $367.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $220.09 | $301.1B |
| Median | 40% | $268.63 | $367.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $307.39 | $420.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.44× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
RTX's latest quarter
RTX, Q3 2026: revenue $25.0B (+11% year over year), operating margin 13.4%, net earnings $2.6B, operating cash flow $2.9B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is RTX being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy RTX?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($249.44 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $136.36 a share (−29% against today's $191.88). At $370.5B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of RTX cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, RTX would cost about $268.63 a share, $367.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.