Filing Flows › Sabre (SABR) › Takeover & LBO
Is Sabre (SABR) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($2.11 a share) would return about 11% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $0.28 a share (−83% against today's $1.62). It already carries 8.4× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 8.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.64× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $2.11 | today's $1.62 plus 30% |
| × shares | 403.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $850M | |
| + Debt refinanced | $4.4B | |
| − Cash | $588M | |
| + Other claims | $15.1M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $4.6B | 10.4× EBITDA of $448M |
| Fees | $92.9M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.3B | 48% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.0B | $469M | $188M | $134M | $2.3B |
| Year 2 | $3.1B | $489M | $178M | $155M | $2.2B |
| Year 3 | $3.3B | $507M | $166M | $177M | $2.0B |
| Year 4 | $3.4B | $525M | $153M | $199M | $1.8B |
| Year 5 | $3.5B | $540M | $138M | $222M | $1.6B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 9.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $5.4B | |
| − Debt left | $1.6B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.67× | on $2.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 10.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $1.62; the IRR reaches 20% at $0.28 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $1.78 | 12.1% |
| 20% | $1.94 | 11.4% |
| 30% | $2.11 | 10.8% |
| 40% | $2.27 | 10.1% |
| 50% | $2.43 | 9.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $448M | 15.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $108M | |
| Capital spending | $94.0M | |
| Debt | $4.4B | |
| Cash | $588M | |
| Share price | $1.62 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 4.7% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Sabre would cost about $2.11 a share, $850M for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $1.81 | $732M |
| Median | 30% | $2.11 | $850M |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $2.12 | $857M |
The odds, from history
Historically 8.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.64× the average). Its figures put it in decile 10 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Sabre's latest quarter
Sabre, Q3 2026: revenue $738M (+3% year over year), operating margin 14.8%, net loss $25.5M, operating cash flow −$24.6M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Sabre being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Sabre?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($2.11 a share) would return about 11% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $0.28 a share (−83% against today's $1.62). It already carries 8.4× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Sabre cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Sabre would cost about $2.11 a share, $850M for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.