Filing Flows › SAP SE (SAP) › Takeover & LBO
Is SAP SE (SAP) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($303.49 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $145.18 a share (−38% against today's $233.45). At $372.8B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $303.49 | today's $233.45 plus 30% |
| × shares | 1,228.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $372.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $0 | |
| = Enterprise value | $372.8B | 34.1× EBITDA of $10.9B |
| Fees | $7.5B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $60.1B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $320.2B | 84% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $37.9B | $11.3B | $4.6B | $5.0B | $55.1B |
| Year 2 | $39.0B | $11.6B | $4.2B | $5.5B | $49.5B |
| Year 3 | $40.2B | $11.9B | $3.8B | $6.1B | $43.4B |
| Year 4 | $41.4B | $12.3B | $3.3B | $6.7B | $36.7B |
| Year 5 | $42.7B | $12.7B | $2.8B | $7.3B | $29.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 26.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $332.5B | |
| − Debt left | $29.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $303.1B | |
| Money multiple | 0.95× | on $320.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −1.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $233.45; the IRR reaches 20% at $145.18 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $256.80 | 3.0% |
| 20% | $280.14 | 0.8% |
| 30% | $303.49 | −1.1% |
| 40% | $326.83 | −2.8% |
| 50% | $350.17 | −4.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $36.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $10.9B | 29.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.3B | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $0 | |
| Share price | $233.45 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 29% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, SAP SE would cost about $303.49 a share, $372.8B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $261.46 | $321.2B |
| Median | 30% | $303.49 | $372.8B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $305.82 | $375.7B |
SAP SE's latest quarter
SAP SE, Q3 2026: revenue $10.3B (+13% year over year), operating margin 28.5%, net earnings $2.2B, operating cash flow $1.9B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is SAP SE being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy SAP SE?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($303.49 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $145.18 a share (−38% against today's $233.45). At $372.8B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of SAP SE cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, SAP SE would cost about $303.49 a share, $372.8B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 9, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.