Filing Flows › Sinclair (SBGI) › Takeover & LBO
Is Sinclair (SBGI) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($16.64 a share) would return about 13% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $8.35 a share (−35% against today's $12.80). It already carries 6.6× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 3.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.71× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $16.64 | today's $12.80 plus 30% |
| × shares | 72.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $4.3B | |
| − Cash | $659M | |
| + Other claims | −$77.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $4.8B | 8.7× EBITDA of $556M |
| Fees | $96.4M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.1B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $1.9B | 38% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.4B | $562M | $234M | $242M | $2.8B |
| Year 2 | $3.5B | $572M | $215M | $265M | $2.6B |
| Year 3 | $3.5B | $584M | $195M | $290M | $2.3B |
| Year 4 | $3.6B | $598M | $173M | $320M | $1.9B |
| Year 5 | $3.7B | $616M | $148M | $354M | $1.6B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 8.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $5.0B | |
| − Debt left | $1.6B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.4B | |
| Money multiple | 1.86× | on $1.9B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 13.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $12.80; the IRR reaches 20% at $8.35 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $14.08 | 15.4% |
| 20% | $15.36 | 14.3% |
| 30% | $16.64 | 13.2% |
| 40% | $17.92 | 12.0% |
| 50% | $19.20 | 11.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $556M | 16.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $265M | |
| Capital spending | $74.0M | |
| Debt | $4.3B | |
| Cash | $659M | |
| Share price | $12.80 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 1.2% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Sinclair would cost about $16.96 a share, $1.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $15.36 | $1.1B |
| Median | 32.5% | $16.96 | $1.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $19.43 | $1.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.71× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Sinclair's latest quarter
Sinclair, Q3 2026: revenue $893M (+16% year over year), operating margin 15.0%, net earnings $43.0M, operating cash flow $129M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Sinclair being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Sinclair?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($16.64 a share) would return about 13% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $8.35 a share (−35% against today's $12.80). It already carries 6.6× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Sinclair cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Sinclair would cost about $16.96 a share, $1.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.