Filing Flows › Seadrill (SDRL) › Takeover & LBO
Is Seadrill (SDRL) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($68.34 a share) would return about 12% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $57.22 a share (9% against today's $52.57). Historically 3.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.75× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $68.34 | today's $52.57 plus 30% |
| × shares | 65.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $737M | |
| − Cash | $483M | |
| = Enterprise value | $4.7B | 11.0× EBITDA of $426M |
| Fees | $93.9M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.3B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.4B | 51% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.7B | $460M | $179M | $268M | $2.1B |
| Year 2 | $1.8B | $491M | $159M | $321M | $1.8B |
| Year 3 | $1.9B | $518M | $134M | $364M | $1.4B |
| Year 4 | $2.0B | $540M | $106M | $405M | $985M |
| Year 5 | $2.1B | $556M | $75.3M | $444M | $541M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 8.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $4.8B | |
| − Debt left | $541M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $4.3B | |
| Money multiple | 1.74× | on $2.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 11.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $52.57; the IRR reaches 20% at $57.22 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $57.83 | 19.4% |
| 20% | $63.08 | 15.2% |
| 30% | $68.34 | 11.7% |
| 40% | $73.60 | 8.8% |
| 50% | $78.86 | 6.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $426M | 26.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $289M | |
| Debt | $737M | |
| Cash | $483M | |
| Share price | $52.57 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Seadrill would cost about $69.66 a share, $4.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $63.08 | $4.1B |
| Median | 32.5% | $69.66 | $4.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $79.80 | $5.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.75× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Seadrill's latest quarter
Seadrill, Q3 2026: revenue $428M (+18% year over year), operating margin 10.3%, net loss $30.0M, operating cash flow $195M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Seadrill being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Seadrill?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($68.34 a share) would return about 12% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $57.22 a share (9% against today's $52.57).
What would a takeover of Seadrill cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Seadrill would cost about $69.66 a share, $4.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.