Filing Flows › Shake Shack (SHAK) › Takeover & LBO
Is Shake Shack (SHAK) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($91.62 a share) would return a loss of about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $42.86 a share (−39% against today's $70.48). Historically 3.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.6× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $91.62 | today's $70.48 plus 30% |
| × shares | 41.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $3.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $249M | |
| − Cash | $319M | |
| + Other claims | $30.8M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $3.8B | 21.4× EBITDA of $178M |
| Fees | $76.0M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $976M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.9B | 75% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.7B | $192M | $74.7M | −$135M | $1.1B |
| Year 2 | $1.9B | $205M | $85.0M | −$148M | $1.3B |
| Year 3 | $2.0B | $216M | $96.3M | −$160M | $1.4B |
| Year 4 | $2.0B | $225M | $109M | −$173M | $1.6B |
| Year 5 | $2.1B | $232M | $122M | −$185M | $1.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 16.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.8B | |
| − Debt left | $1.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.0B | |
| Money multiple | 0.70× | on $2.9B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −6.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $70.48; the IRR reaches 20% at $42.86 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $77.53 | −2.5% |
| 20% | $84.58 | −4.8% |
| 30% | $91.62 | −6.9% |
| 40% | $98.67 | −8.7% |
| 50% | $105.72 | −10.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $178M | 11.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $119M | |
| Capital spending | $222M | |
| Debt | $249M | |
| Cash | $319M | |
| Share price | $70.48 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Shake Shack would cost about $93.39 a share, $3.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $84.58 | $3.5B |
| Median | 32.5% | $93.39 | $3.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $106.99 | $4.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.6× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Shake Shack's latest quarter
Shake Shack, Q3 2026: revenue $423M (+15% year over year), operating margin 5.1%, net earnings $16.5M, operating cash flow $70.6M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Shake Shack being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Shake Shack?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($91.62 a share) would return a loss of about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $42.86 a share (−39% against today's $70.48).
What would a takeover of Shake Shack cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Shake Shack would cost about $93.39 a share, $3.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.