Filing Flows › Steven Madden (SHOO) › Takeover & LBO
Is Steven Madden (SHOO) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($56.55 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $38.10 a share (−12% against today's $43.50). Historically 3.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.76× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $56.55 | today's $43.50 plus 30% |
| × shares | 72.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $120M | |
| − Cash | $112M | |
| + Other claims | $32.7M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $4.1B | 14.6× EBITDA of $284M |
| Fees | $82.9M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.7B | 63% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.1B | $306M | $119M | $84.7M | $1.5B |
| Year 2 | $3.3B | $327M | $113M | $105M | $1.4B |
| Year 3 | $3.5B | $345M | $105M | $125M | $1.2B |
| Year 4 | $3.6B | $360M | $95.2M | $145M | $1.1B |
| Year 5 | $3.7B | $370M | $84.1M | $164M | $936M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $4.2B | |
| − Debt left | $936M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.2B | |
| Money multiple | 1.21× | on $2.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $43.50; the IRR reaches 20% at $38.10 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $47.85 | 9.9% |
| 20% | $52.20 | 6.7% |
| 30% | $56.55 | 4.0% |
| 40% | $60.90 | 1.6% |
| 50% | $65.25 | −0.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $284M | 10.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $36.1M | |
| Capital spending | $39.1M | |
| Debt | $120M | |
| Cash | $112M | |
| Share price | $43.50 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 25% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Steven Madden would cost about $57.64 a share, $4.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $52.20 | $3.8B |
| Median | 32.5% | $57.64 | $4.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $66.03 | $4.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.76× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Steven Madden's latest quarter
Steven Madden, Q3 2026: revenue $773M (+16% year over year), operating margin 9.5%, net earnings $52.4M, operating cash flow $3.5M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Steven Madden being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Steven Madden?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($56.55 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $38.10 a share (−12% against today's $43.50).
What would a takeover of Steven Madden cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Steven Madden would cost about $57.64 a share, $4.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.