Filing Flows › J M Smucker (SJM) › Takeover & LBO
Is J M Smucker (SJM) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($170.20 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $81.45 a share (−38% against today's $130.92).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $170.20 | today's $130.92 plus 30% |
| × shares | 106.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $18.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $6.7B | |
| − Cash | $43.2M | |
| = Enterprise value | $24.9B | 18.1× EBITDA of $1.4B |
| Fees | $498M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $7.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $17.8B | 70% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $9.6B | $1.4B | $579M | $395M | $7.2B |
| Year 2 | $10.1B | $1.5B | $548M | $458M | $6.7B |
| Year 3 | $10.5B | $1.6B | $513M | $521M | $6.2B |
| Year 4 | $10.8B | $1.6B | $474M | $586M | $5.6B |
| Year 5 | $11.2B | $1.7B | $429M | $650M | $5.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 15.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $25.2B | |
| − Debt left | $5.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $20.2B | |
| Money multiple | 1.14× | on $17.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $130.92; the IRR reaches 20% at $81.45 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $144.01 | 6.2% |
| 20% | $157.10 | 4.3% |
| 30% | $170.20 | 2.6% |
| 40% | $183.29 | 1.0% |
| 50% | $196.38 | −0.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $9.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.4B | 15.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $549M | |
| Capital spending | $322M | |
| Debt | $6.7B | |
| Cash | $43.2M | |
| Share price | $130.92 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 5.1% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, J M Smucker would cost about $173.47 a share, $18.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $157.10 | $16.8B |
| Median | 32.5% | $173.47 | $18.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $198.74 | $21.2B |
J M Smucker's latest quarter
J M Smucker, Q1 FY27: revenue $2.2B (+5% year over year), operating margin 23.1%, net earnings $324M, operating cash flow $426M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is J M Smucker being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy J M Smucker?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($170.20 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $81.45 a share (−38% against today's $130.92).
What would a takeover of J M Smucker cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, J M Smucker would cost about $173.47 a share, $18.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.