Filing Flows › Simply Good Foods (SMPL) › Takeover & LBO
Is Simply Good Foods (SMPL) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout does not work for Simply Good Foods on its latest figures: it has no positive EBITDA to borrow against (−$155M over the last 12 months, on revenue of $1.4B). Historically 4.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.81× the average).
Why a leveraged buyout does not fit
A leveraged buyout is paid for mostly with debt that the company's own cash flow repays. Simply Good Foods' EBITDA over the last 12 months was −$155M on revenue of $1.4B, so there is nothing to lend against and nothing to repay a loan with: a buyer would have to pay almost entirely with its own money. That is the kind of deal another company — a strategic buyer that wants the products, the pipeline or the technology — makes, not a private-equity fund. The model therefore gives no buyout price.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Simply Good Foods would cost about $17.61 a share, $1.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $15.95 | $1.5B |
| Median | 32.5% | $17.61 | $1.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $20.17 | $1.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.81× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Simply Good Foods' latest quarter
Simply Good Foods, Q4 FY26: revenue $333M (-10% year over year), operating margin 13.8%, net earnings $30.5M, operating cash flow $78.9M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Simply Good Foods being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Simply Good Foods?
A leveraged buyout does not work for Simply Good Foods on its latest figures: it has no positive EBITDA to borrow against (−$155M over the last 12 months, on revenue of $1.4B). With no cash flow to repay a loan, a buyer would pay almost entirely with its own money: a deal for another company (a strategic buyer), not for a private-equity fund.
What would a takeover of Simply Good Foods cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Simply Good Foods would cost about $17.61 a share, $1.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.