Filing Flows › Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) › Takeover & LBO
Is Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($141.62 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $79.41 a share (−27% against today's $108.94). Historically 5.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.09× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $141.62 | today's $108.94 plus 30% |
| × shares | 36.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $5.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $649M | |
| − Cash | $551M | |
| = Enterprise value | $5.2B | 28.7× EBITDA of $182M |
| Fees | $104M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $4.3B | 81% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.5B | $197M | $76.6M | $109M | $892M |
| Year 2 | $1.6B | $210M | $68.3M | $132M | $761M |
| Year 3 | $1.7B | $221M | $58.2M | $155M | $606M |
| Year 4 | $1.7B | $231M | $46.3M | $178M | $428M |
| Year 5 | $1.8B | $238M | $32.8M | $200M | $228M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 22.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $5.3B | |
| − Debt left | $228M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $5.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.17× | on $4.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $108.94; the IRR reaches 20% at $79.41 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $119.83 | 7.5% |
| 20% | $130.73 | 5.2% |
| 30% | $141.62 | 3.1% |
| 40% | $152.52 | 1.3% |
| 50% | $163.41 | −0.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $182M | 13.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $337M | |
| Debt | $649M | |
| Cash | $551M | |
| Share price | $108.94 | on Oct 23, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Sphere Entertainment would cost about $144.35 a share, $5.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $130.73 | $4.7B |
| Median | 32.5% | $144.35 | $5.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $165.37 | $6.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 5.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.09× the average). Its figures put it in decile 7 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Sphere Entertainment's latest quarter
Sphere Entertainment, Q3 2026: revenue $274M (+4% year over year), operating margin -87.7%, net loss $176M, operating cash flow $56.9M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Sphere Entertainment being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Sphere Entertainment?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($141.62 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $79.41 a share (−27% against today's $108.94).
What would a takeover of Sphere Entertainment cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Sphere Entertainment would cost about $144.35 a share, $5.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.