Filing Flows › Spire (SR) › Takeover & LBO
Is Spire (SR) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($114.40 a share) would return a loss of about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $1.87 a share (−98% against today's $88.00). It already carries 9.4× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 2.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.51× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $114.40 | today's $88.00 plus 30% |
| × shares | 59.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $6.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $8.2B | |
| − Cash | $49.5M | |
| = Enterprise value | $14.9B | 17.2× EBITDA of $867M |
| Fees | $299M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $4.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $10.5B | 69% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.7B | $906M | $365M | −$382M | $5.2B |
| Year 2 | $2.8B | $944M | $394M | −$409M | $5.6B |
| Year 3 | $2.9B | $979M | $425M | −$437M | $6.0B |
| Year 4 | $3.0B | $1.0B | $459M | −$466M | $6.5B |
| Year 5 | $3.1B | $1.0B | $494M | −$497M | $7.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 15.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $16.1B | |
| − Debt left | $7.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $9.1B | |
| Money multiple | 0.87× | on $10.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −2.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $88.00; the IRR reaches 20% at $1.87 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $96.80 | −0.6% |
| 20% | $105.60 | −1.7% |
| 30% | $114.40 | −2.7% |
| 40% | $123.20 | −3.7% |
| 50% | $132.00 | −4.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $867M | 34.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $321M | |
| Capital spending | $838M | |
| Debt | $8.2B | |
| Cash | $49.5M | |
| Share price | $88.00 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 4.5% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 18% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Spire would cost about $116.60 a share, $6.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $105.60 | $6.3B |
| Median | 32.5% | $116.60 | $6.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $133.58 | $7.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.51× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Spire's latest quarter
Spire, Q3 FY26: revenue $420M (-0.4% year over year), operating margin 5.6%, net earnings $211M, operating cash flow $122M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Spire being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Spire?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($114.40 a share) would return a loss of about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $1.87 a share (−98% against today's $88.00). It already carries 9.4× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Spire cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Spire would cost about $116.60 a share, $6.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.