Filing Flows › Simpson Manufacturing (SSD) › Takeover & LBO
Is Simpson Manufacturing (SSD) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($251.34 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 3.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.72× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $251.34 | today's $193.34 plus 30% |
| × shares | 40.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $10.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $289M | |
| − Cash | $491M | |
| = Enterprise value | $10.0B | 16.7× EBITDA of $603M |
| Fees | $201M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.3B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $6.9B | 68% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.6B | $635M | $254M | $212M | $3.1B |
| Year 2 | $2.7B | $666M | $237M | $245M | $2.9B |
| Year 3 | $2.8B | $694M | $219M | $278M | $2.6B |
| Year 4 | $2.9B | $719M | $197M | $312M | $2.3B |
| Year 5 | $3.0B | $741M | $173M | $345M | $1.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 12.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $9.4B | |
| − Debt left | $1.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $7.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.08× | on $6.9B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $193.34.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $212.67 | 7.2% |
| 20% | $232.01 | 4.2% |
| 30% | $251.34 | 1.6% |
| 40% | $270.68 | −0.6% |
| 50% | $290.01 | −2.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $603M | 24.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $103M | |
| Capital spending | $83.6M | |
| Debt | $289M | |
| Cash | $491M | |
| Share price | $193.34 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 5.4% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 25% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Simpson Manufacturing would cost about $270.68 a share, $11.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $221.76 | $9.0B |
| Median | 40% | $270.68 | $11.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $309.73 | $12.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.72× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Simpson Manufacturing's latest quarter
Simpson Manufacturing, Q3 2026: revenue $638M (+2% year over year), operating margin 22.1%, net earnings $109M, operating cash flow $173M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Simpson Manufacturing being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Simpson Manufacturing?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($251.34 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Simpson Manufacturing cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Simpson Manufacturing would cost about $270.68 a share, $11.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.