Filing Flows › SSR Mining (SSRM) › Takeover & LBO
Is SSR Mining (SSRM) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($34.42 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 3.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.7× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $34.42 | today's $26.48 plus 30% |
| × shares | 204.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $7.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $66.1M | |
| − Cash | $1.6B | |
| = Enterprise value | $5.5B | 6.8× EBITDA of $802M |
| Fees | $109M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.6B | 4.4× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $2.0B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.2B | $866M | $272M | $135M | $3.4B |
| Year 2 | $2.3B | $925M | $262M | $171M | $3.2B |
| Year 3 | $2.4B | $976M | $249M | $205M | $3.0B |
| Year 4 | $2.5B | $1.0B | $233M | $238M | $2.8B |
| Year 5 | $2.6B | $1.0B | $215M | $269M | $2.5B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 4.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $5.0B | |
| − Debt left | $2.5B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.23× | on $2.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $26.48.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $29.13 | 16.2% |
| 20% | $31.78 | 10.2% |
| 30% | $34.42 | 4.2% |
| 40% | $37.07 | −2.0% |
| 50% | $39.72 | −8.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $802M | 40.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $126M | |
| Capital spending | $335M | |
| Debt | $66.1M | |
| Cash | $1.6B | |
| Share price | $26.48 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 18% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, SSR Mining would cost about $30.43 a share, $6.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 9.5% | $29.00 | $5.9B |
| Median | 14.9% | $30.43 | $6.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 33.6% | $35.38 | $7.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.7× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
SSR Mining's latest quarter
SSR Mining, Q3 2026: revenue $448M (+16% year over year), operating margin 27.3%, net earnings $79.9M, operating cash flow $92.1M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is SSR Mining being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy SSR Mining?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($34.42 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of SSR Mining cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, SSR Mining would cost about $30.43 a share, $6.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.