Filing Flows › Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) › Takeover & LBO
Is Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($449.68 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $297.19 a share (−14% against today's $345.91). Historically 2.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.43× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $449.68 | today's $345.91 plus 30% |
| × shares | 31.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $14.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $95.3M | |
| − Cash | $217M | |
| + Other claims | $47.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $13.9B | 15.8× EBITDA of $882M |
| Fees | $278M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $4.9B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $9.3B | 66% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.7B | $953M | $371M | $294M | $4.6B |
| Year 2 | $5.0B | $1.0B | $349M | $357M | $4.2B |
| Year 3 | $5.2B | $1.1B | $321M | $419M | $3.8B |
| Year 4 | $5.5B | $1.1B | $289M | $479M | $3.3B |
| Year 5 | $5.6B | $1.2B | $253M | $536M | $2.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 12.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $13.9B | |
| − Debt left | $2.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $11.2B | |
| Money multiple | 1.20× | on $9.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $345.91; the IRR reaches 20% at $297.19 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $380.50 | 9.4% |
| 20% | $415.09 | 6.3% |
| 30% | $449.68 | 3.7% |
| 40% | $484.27 | 1.4% |
| 50% | $518.87 | −0.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $882M | 20.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $98.4M | |
| Capital spending | $142M | |
| Debt | $95.3M | |
| Cash | $217M | |
| Share price | $345.91 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Sterling Infrastructure would cost about $484.27 a share, $15.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $396.76 | $12.3B |
| Median | 40% | $484.27 | $15.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $554.15 | $17.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.43× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Sterling Infrastructure's latest quarter
Sterling Infrastructure, Q3 2026: revenue $1.6B (+127% year over year), operating margin 19.6%, net earnings $215M, operating cash flow $99.1M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Sterling Infrastructure being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Sterling Infrastructure?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($449.68 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $297.19 a share (−14% against today's $345.91).
What would a takeover of Sterling Infrastructure cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Sterling Infrastructure would cost about $484.27 a share, $15.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.