Filing Flows › Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) › Takeover & LBO
Is Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($606.49 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $346.98 a share (−26% against today's $466.53). At $141.8B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $606.49 | today's $466.53 plus 30% |
| × shares | 232.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $140.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.4B | |
| − Cash | $1.3B | |
| = Enterprise value | $141.8B | 24.7× EBITDA of $5.7B |
| Fees | $2.8B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $31.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $113.0B | 78% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $14.9B | $6.2B | $2.4B | $2.5B | $29.1B |
| Year 2 | $15.9B | $6.6B | $2.2B | $3.0B | $26.1B |
| Year 3 | $16.8B | $7.0B | $2.0B | $3.5B | $22.6B |
| Year 4 | $17.5B | $7.3B | $1.7B | $3.9B | $18.7B |
| Year 5 | $18.0B | $7.5B | $1.4B | $4.4B | $14.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 19.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $142.8B | |
| − Debt left | $14.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $128.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.14× | on $113.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $466.53; the IRR reaches 20% at $346.98 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $513.18 | 7.2% |
| 20% | $559.84 | 4.7% |
| 30% | $606.49 | 2.6% |
| 40% | $653.14 | 0.7% |
| 50% | $699.79 | −1.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $13.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $5.7B | 41.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $280M | |
| Capital spending | $675M | |
| Debt | $2.4B | |
| Cash | $1.3B | |
| Share price | $466.53 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 13% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Seagate Technology Holdings would cost about $606.49 a share, $140.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $522.51 | $121.2B |
| Median | 30% | $606.49 | $140.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $611.15 | $141.8B |
Seagate Technology Holdings' latest quarter
Seagate Technology Holdings, Q1 FY27: revenue $4.2B (+61% year over year), operating margin 48.8%, net earnings $1.8B, operating cash flow $1.7B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Seagate Technology Holdings being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Seagate Technology Holdings?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($606.49 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $346.98 a share (−26% against today's $466.53). At $141.8B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Seagate Technology Holdings cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Seagate Technology Holdings would cost about $606.49 a share, $140.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.