Filing Flows › Sunoco LP (SUN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Sunoco LP (SUN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($80.24 a share) would return about 14% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $63.41 a share (3% against today's $61.72). Historically 3.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.65× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $80.24 | today's $61.72 plus 30% |
| × shares | 188.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $15.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $13.2B | |
| − Cash | $760M | |
| = Enterprise value | $27.5B | 8.0× EBITDA of $3.4B |
| Fees | $550M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $17.9B | 5.2× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $10.2B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $52.3B | $3.5B | $1.4B | $1.8B | $16.1B |
| Year 2 | $53.2B | $3.5B | $1.2B | $2.0B | $14.1B |
| Year 3 | $54.4B | $3.6B | $1.1B | $2.1B | $12.0B |
| Year 4 | $55.8B | $3.7B | $914M | $2.3B | $9.6B |
| Year 5 | $57.4B | $3.8B | $737M | $2.5B | $7.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 7.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $26.8B | |
| − Debt left | $7.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $19.7B | |
| Money multiple | 1.93× | on $10.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 14.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $61.72; the IRR reaches 20% at $63.41 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $67.89 | 18.4% |
| 20% | $74.06 | 16.2% |
| 30% | $80.24 | 14.1% |
| 40% | $86.41 | 11.9% |
| 50% | $92.58 | 9.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $51.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $3.4B | 6.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.1B | |
| Debt | $13.2B | |
| Cash | $760M | |
| Share price | $61.72 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 1.4% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Sunoco LP would cost about $81.78 a share, $15.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $74.06 | $14.0B |
| Median | 32.5% | $81.78 | $15.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $93.69 | $17.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.65× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Sunoco LP's latest quarter
Sunoco LP, Q3 2026: revenue $18.0B (+199% year over year), operating margin 4.1%, net earnings $499M, operating cash flow $696M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Sunoco LP being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Sunoco LP?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($80.24 a share) would return about 14% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $63.41 a share (3% against today's $61.72).
What would a takeover of Sunoco LP cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Sunoco LP would cost about $81.78 a share, $15.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.