Filing Flows › SunCoke Energy (SXC) › Takeover & LBO
Is SunCoke Energy (SXC) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($14.73 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $7.65 a share (−32% against today's $11.33). Historically 4.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.92× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $14.73 | today's $11.33 plus 30% |
| × shares | 86.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $601M | |
| − Cash | $57.6M | |
| + Other claims | $28.4M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $1.8B | 11.4× EBITDA of $162M |
| Fees | $36.8M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $891M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $987M | 53% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.0B | $167M | $68.2M | $13.2M | $878M |
| Year 2 | $2.0B | $172M | $67.2M | $16.5M | $861M |
| Year 3 | $2.1B | $177M | $65.9M | $20.2M | $841M |
| Year 4 | $2.1B | $182M | $64.3M | $24.3M | $817M |
| Year 5 | $2.2B | $187M | $62.5M | $28.7M | $788M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 9.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $1.8B | |
| − Debt left | $788M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.02× | on $987M put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $11.33; the IRR reaches 20% at $7.65 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $12.46 | 4.9% |
| 20% | $13.60 | 2.5% |
| 30% | $14.73 | 0.3% |
| 40% | $15.86 | −1.6% |
| 50% | $17.00 | −3.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $162M | 8.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $186M | |
| Capital spending | $77.6M | |
| Debt | $601M | |
| Cash | $57.6M | |
| Share price | $11.33 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 2.9% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, SunCoke Energy would cost about $15.01 a share, $1.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $13.60 | $1.2B |
| Median | 32.5% | $15.01 | $1.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $17.20 | $1.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.92× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
SunCoke Energy's latest quarter
SunCoke Energy, Q3 2026: revenue $486M (-0.2% year over year), operating margin 8.4%, net earnings $21.8M, operating cash flow $94.8M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is SunCoke Energy being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy SunCoke Energy?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($14.73 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $7.65 a share (−32% against today's $11.33).
What would a takeover of SunCoke Energy cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, SunCoke Energy would cost about $15.01 a share, $1.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.