Filing Flows › Taboola.com (TBLA) › Takeover & LBO
Is Taboola.com (TBLA) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($4.50 a share) would return about 9% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 3.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.72× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $4.50 | today's $3.46 plus 30% |
| × shares | 285.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $78.5M | |
| − Cash | $129M | |
| = Enterprise value | $1.2B | 6.1× EBITDA of $203M |
| Fees | $24.7M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $804M | 4.0× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $458M | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.0B | $208M | $61.5M | $68.2M | $736M |
| Year 2 | $2.0B | $213M | $56.3M | $75.7M | $660M |
| Year 3 | $2.1B | $219M | $50.5M | $83.9M | $576M |
| Year 4 | $2.1B | $225M | $44.1M | $93.0M | $483M |
| Year 5 | $2.2B | $232M | $37.0M | $103M | $381M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 4.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $1.1B | |
| − Debt left | $381M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $696M | |
| Money multiple | 1.52× | on $458M put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 8.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $3.46.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $3.81 | 17.8% |
| 20% | $4.16 | 13.3% |
| 30% | $4.50 | 8.7% |
| 40% | $4.85 | 4.2% |
| 50% | $5.20 | −0.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $203M | 10.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $55.2M | |
| Capital spending | $60.2M | |
| Debt | $78.5M | |
| Cash | $129M | |
| Share price | $3.46 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 2.5% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 13% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Taboola.com would cost about $4.50 a share, $1.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $3.88 | $1.1B |
| Median | 30% | $4.50 | $1.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $4.54 | $1.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.72× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Taboola.com's latest quarter
Taboola.com, Q3 2026: revenue $462M (-7% year over year), operating margin 5.8%, net earnings $18.4M, operating cash flow $35.6M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Taboola.com being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Taboola.com?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($4.50 a share) would return about 9% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Taboola.com cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Taboola.com would cost about $4.50 a share, $1.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.