Filing Flows › Teradata (TDC) › Takeover & LBO
Is Teradata (TDC) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($44.52 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 2.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.58× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $44.52 | today's $34.25 plus 30% |
| × shares | 95.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $432M | |
| = Enterprise value | $3.8B | 17.7× EBITDA of $216M |
| Fees | $76.4M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.7B | 70% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.7B | $219M | $90.9M | $93.6M | $1.1B |
| Year 2 | $1.7B | $223M | $83.7M | $101M | $993M |
| Year 3 | $1.8B | $228M | $76.0M | $110M | $883M |
| Year 4 | $1.8B | $234M | $67.5M | $121M | $762M |
| Year 5 | $1.9B | $241M | $58.3M | $132M | $630M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 13.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.2B | |
| − Debt left | $630M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.5B | |
| Money multiple | 0.94× | on $2.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −1.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $34.25.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $37.68 | 4.4% |
| 20% | $41.10 | 1.3% |
| 30% | $44.52 | −1.3% |
| 40% | $47.95 | −3.6% |
| 50% | $51.38 | −5.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $216M | 12.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $96.0M | |
| Capital spending | $25.0M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $432M | |
| Share price | $34.25 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 1.4% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Teradata would cost about $44.52 a share, $4.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $38.36 | $3.7B |
| Median | 30% | $44.52 | $4.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $44.87 | $4.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.58× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Teradata's latest quarter
Teradata, Q3 2026: revenue $399M (-4% year over year), operating margin 13.5%, net earnings $38.0M, operating cash flow $91.0M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Teradata being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Teradata?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($44.52 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Teradata cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Teradata would cost about $44.52 a share, $4.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.