Filing Flows › TransDigm Group (TDG) › Takeover & LBO
Is TransDigm Group (TDG) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($1,558.49 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $752.53 a share (−37% against today's $1,198.84). At $119.5B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 3.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.69× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $1,558.49 | today's $1,198.84 plus 30% |
| × shares | 57.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $89.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $32.8B | |
| − Cash | $2.8B | |
| + Other claims | $9.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $119.5B | 23.8× EBITDA of $5.0B |
| Fees | $2.4B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $27.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $94.2B | 77% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $10.8B | $5.4B | $2.1B | $2.3B | $25.3B |
| Year 2 | $11.5B | $5.8B | $1.9B | $2.7B | $22.6B |
| Year 3 | $12.2B | $6.1B | $1.7B | $3.1B | $19.5B |
| Year 4 | $12.7B | $6.4B | $1.5B | $3.5B | $16.0B |
| Year 5 | $13.1B | $6.6B | $1.2B | $3.9B | $12.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 19.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $129.0B | |
| − Debt left | $12.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $117.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.24× | on $94.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $1,198.84; the IRR reaches 20% at $752.53 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $1,318.72 | 7.9% |
| 20% | $1,438.61 | 6.1% |
| 30% | $1,558.49 | 4.4% |
| 40% | $1,678.38 | 2.9% |
| 50% | $1,798.26 | 1.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $10.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $5.0B | 50.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $419M | |
| Capital spending | $271M | |
| Debt | $32.8B | |
| Cash | $2.8B | |
| Share price | $1,198.84 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, TransDigm Group would cost about $1,678.38 a share, $96.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $1,375.07 | $78.9B |
| Median | 40% | $1,678.38 | $96.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $1,920.54 | $110.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.69× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
TransDigm Group's latest quarter
TransDigm Group, Q3 FY26: revenue $2.7B (+22% year over year), operating margin 44.8%, net earnings $540M, operating cash flow $724M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is TransDigm Group being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy TransDigm Group?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($1,558.49 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $752.53 a share (−37% against today's $1,198.84). At $119.5B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of TransDigm Group cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, TransDigm Group would cost about $1,678.38 a share, $96.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.