Filing Flows › Tidewater (TDW) › Takeover & LBO
Is Tidewater (TDW) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($113.53 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $69.48 a share (−20% against today's $87.33). Historically 3.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.76× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $113.53 | today's $87.33 plus 30% |
| × shares | 50.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $5.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $670M | |
| − Cash | $614M | |
| + Other claims | −$4.9M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $5.7B | 14.4× EBITDA of $400M |
| Fees | $115M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.7B | 62% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.3B | $396M | $168M | $179M | $2.0B |
| Year 2 | $1.3B | $396M | $155M | $191M | $1.8B |
| Year 3 | $1.3B | $400M | $140M | $205M | $1.6B |
| Year 4 | $1.4B | $408M | $124M | $224M | $1.4B |
| Year 5 | $1.4B | $420M | $107M | $248M | $1.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $4.7B | |
| − Debt left | $1.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.5B | |
| Money multiple | 0.96× | on $3.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $87.33; the IRR reaches 20% at $69.48 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $96.06 | 4.8% |
| 20% | $104.80 | 1.7% |
| 30% | $113.53 | −0.9% |
| 40% | $122.26 | −3.1% |
| 50% | $131.00 | −5.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $400M | 29.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $152M | |
| Capital spending | $40.1M | |
| Debt | $670M | |
| Cash | $614M | |
| Share price | $87.33 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -1.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Tidewater would cost about $122.26 a share, $6.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $100.17 | $5.0B |
| Median | 40% | $122.26 | $6.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $139.90 | $7.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.76× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Tidewater's latest quarter
Tidewater, Q2 2026: revenue $342M (+0.3% year over year), operating margin 18.3%, net earnings $21.7M, operating cash flow $67.0M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Tidewater being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Tidewater?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($113.53 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $69.48 a share (−20% against today's $87.33).
What would a takeover of Tidewater cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Tidewater would cost about $122.26 a share, $6.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.