Filing Flows › Terex (TEX) › Takeover & LBO
Is Terex (TEX) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($70.94 a share) would return about 8% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $48.58 a share (−11% against today's $54.57). Historically 4.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.84× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $70.94 | today's $54.57 plus 30% |
| × shares | 114.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $8.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.6B | |
| − Cash | $407M | |
| = Enterprise value | $10.3B | 14.3× EBITDA of $719M |
| Fees | $205M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $4.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $6.5B | 62% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $8.1B | $777M | $303M | $389M | $3.6B |
| Year 2 | $8.6B | $829M | $273M | $467M | $3.1B |
| Year 3 | $9.1B | $875M | $237M | $545M | $2.6B |
| Year 4 | $9.5B | $912M | $195M | $623M | $1.9B |
| Year 5 | $9.8B | $939M | $148M | $698M | $1.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $11.0B | |
| − Debt left | $1.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $9.7B | |
| Money multiple | 1.49× | on $6.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 8.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $54.57; the IRR reaches 20% at $48.58 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $60.03 | 13.2% |
| 20% | $65.48 | 10.6% |
| 30% | $70.94 | 8.4% |
| 40% | $76.40 | 6.4% |
| 50% | $81.86 | 4.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $7.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $719M | 9.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $294M | |
| Debt | $2.6B | |
| Cash | $407M | |
| Share price | $54.57 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 16% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Terex would cost about $76.40 a share, $8.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $62.59 | $7.1B |
| Median | 40% | $76.40 | $8.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $87.42 | $10.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.84× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Terex's latest quarter
Terex, Q3 2026: revenue $2.2B (+58% year over year), operating margin 8.3%, net earnings $114M, operating cash flow $241M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Terex being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Terex?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($70.94 a share) would return about 8% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $48.58 a share (−11% against today's $54.57).
What would a takeover of Terex cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Terex would cost about $76.40 a share, $8.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.