Filing Flows › TIC Solutions (TIC) › Takeover & LBO
Is TIC Solutions (TIC) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($13.07 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $6.46 a share (−36% against today's $10.05). It already carries 6.2× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.67× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $13.07 | today's $10.05 plus 30% |
| × shares | 218.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $2.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.6B | |
| − Cash | $198M | |
| = Enterprise value | $4.3B | 18.7× EBITDA of $228M |
| Fees | $85.3M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.3B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.1B | 71% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.4B | $246M | $96.0M | $76.4M | $1.2B |
| Year 2 | $2.6B | $263M | $90.2M | $96.7M | $1.1B |
| Year 3 | $2.7B | $278M | $82.8M | $117M | $965M |
| Year 4 | $2.8B | $289M | $73.8M | $138M | $827M |
| Year 5 | $2.9B | $298M | $63.2M | $158M | $668M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 15.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $4.7B | |
| − Debt left | $668M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $4.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.31× | on $3.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 5.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $10.05; the IRR reaches 20% at $6.46 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $11.06 | 8.8% |
| 20% | $12.06 | 7.1% |
| 30% | $13.07 | 5.5% |
| 40% | $14.07 | 4.0% |
| 50% | $15.08 | 2.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $228M | 10.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $250M | |
| Capital spending | $52.1M | |
| Debt | $1.6B | |
| Cash | $198M | |
| Share price | $10.05 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, TIC Solutions would cost about $14.07 a share, $3.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $11.53 | $2.5B |
| Median | 40% | $14.07 | $3.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $16.10 | $3.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.67× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
TIC Solutions' latest quarter
TIC Solutions, Q3 2026: revenue $640M (+35% year over year), operating margin 2.5%, net loss $11.1M, operating cash flow $36.5M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is TIC Solutions being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy TIC Solutions?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($13.07 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $6.46 a share (−36% against today's $10.05). It already carries 6.2× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of TIC Solutions cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, TIC Solutions would cost about $14.07 a share, $3.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.