Filing Flows › Timken (TKR) › Takeover & LBO
Is Timken (TKR) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($132.69 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $82.45 a share (−19% against today's $102.07). Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.61× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $132.69 | today's $102.07 plus 30% |
| × shares | 69.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $9.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.9B | |
| − Cash | $410M | |
| + Other claims | $172M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $11.0B | 14.3× EBITDA of $766M |
| Fees | $219M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $4.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $7.0B | 62% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.1B | $811M | $322M | $248M | $4.0B |
| Year 2 | $5.4B | $853M | $303M | $291M | $3.7B |
| Year 3 | $5.6B | $891M | $281M | $335M | $3.3B |
| Year 4 | $5.8B | $925M | $255M | $378M | $3.0B |
| Year 5 | $6.0B | $952M | $226M | $421M | $2.5B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $11.0B | |
| − Debt left | $2.5B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $8.4B | |
| Money multiple | 1.21× | on $7.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $102.07; the IRR reaches 20% at $82.45 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $112.28 | 8.9% |
| 20% | $122.48 | 6.2% |
| 30% | $132.69 | 3.9% |
| 40% | $142.90 | 1.9% |
| 50% | $153.10 | 0.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $766M | 15.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $237M | |
| Capital spending | $143M | |
| Debt | $1.9B | |
| Cash | $410M | |
| Share price | $102.07 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 5.9% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 26% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Timken would cost about $142.90 a share, $10.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $117.07 | $8.2B |
| Median | 40% | $142.90 | $10.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $163.52 | $11.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.61× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Timken's latest quarter
Timken, Q3 2026: revenue $1.2B (+5% year over year), operating margin 13.7%, net earnings $93.8M, operating cash flow $256M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Timken being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Timken?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($132.69 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $82.45 a share (−19% against today's $102.07).
What would a takeover of Timken cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Timken would cost about $142.90 a share, $10.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.