Filing Flows › Talen Energy (TLN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Talen Energy (TLN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($446.06 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $105.79 a share (−69% against today's $343.12). It already carries 21.2× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 3.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.64× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $446.06 | today's $343.12 plus 30% |
| × shares | 48.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $21.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $9.6B | |
| − Cash | $335M | |
| + Other claims | $23.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $30.7B | 70.3× EBITDA of $436M |
| Fees | $613M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.4B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $28.9B | 92% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.3B | $471M | $183M | −$148M | $2.5B |
| Year 2 | $4.6B | $503M | $195M | −$152M | $2.7B |
| Year 3 | $4.8B | $530M | $206M | −$156M | $2.9B |
| Year 4 | $5.0B | $553M | $218M | −$160M | $3.0B |
| Year 5 | $5.2B | $569M | $231M | −$165M | $3.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 59.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $33.6B | |
| − Debt left | $3.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $30.4B | |
| Money multiple | 1.05× | on $28.9B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $343.12; the IRR reaches 20% at $105.79 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $377.43 | 3.6% |
| 20% | $411.74 | 2.3% |
| 30% | $446.06 | 1.0% |
| 40% | $480.37 | −0.1% |
| 50% | $514.68 | −1.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $436M | 11.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $356M | |
| Capital spending | $374M | |
| Debt | $9.6B | |
| Cash | $335M | |
| Share price | $343.12 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Talen Energy would cost about $454.63 a share, $21.8B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $411.74 | $19.8B |
| Median | 32.5% | $454.63 | $21.8B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $520.86 | $25.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.64× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Talen Energy's latest quarter
Talen Energy, Q3 2026: revenue $1.3B (+63% year over year), operating margin 19.2%, net earnings $138M, operating cash flow $463M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Talen Energy being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Talen Energy?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($446.06 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $105.79 a share (−69% against today's $343.12). It already carries 21.2× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Talen Energy cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Talen Energy would cost about $454.63 a share, $21.8B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.