Filing Flows › TransMedics Group (TMDX) › Takeover & LBO
Is TransMedics Group (TMDX) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($101.23 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.55× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $101.23 | today's $77.87 plus 30% |
| × shares | 40.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $491M | |
| = Enterprise value | $3.6B | 30.8× EBITDA of $118M |
| Fees | $72.6M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $649M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.1B | 82% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $722M | $127M | $49.7M | −$4.4M | $654M |
| Year 2 | $771M | $136M | $50.0M | −$1.2M | $655M |
| Year 3 | $813M | $144M | $50.1M | $2.0M | $653M |
| Year 4 | $848M | $150M | $49.9M | $5.0M | $648M |
| Year 5 | $873M | $154M | $49.6M | $7.9M | $640M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 22.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.5B | |
| − Debt left | $640M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.9B | |
| Money multiple | 0.94× | on $3.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −1.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $77.87.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $85.66 | 3.5% |
| 20% | $93.44 | 0.9% |
| 30% | $101.23 | −1.3% |
| 40% | $109.02 | −3.3% |
| 50% | $116.81 | −5.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $668M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $118M | 17.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $36.4M | |
| Capital spending | $66.9M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $491M | |
| Share price | $77.87 | on Oct 9, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, TransMedics Group would cost about $105.12 a share, $4.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $95.00 | $3.9B |
| Median | 35% | $105.12 | $4.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $112.91 | $4.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.55× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
TransMedics Group's latest quarter
TransMedics Group, Q3 2026: revenue $203M (+41% year over year), operating margin 13.9%, net earnings $17.1M, operating cash flow $36.0M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is TransMedics Group being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy TransMedics Group?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($101.23 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of TransMedics Group cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, TransMedics Group would cost about $105.12 a share, $4.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.