Filing Flows › Texas Pacific Land (TPL) › Stock forecast & fair value
Texas Pacific Land (TPL) stock forecast and fair value
Texas Pacific Land (TPL) trades at $350.92. 2 analysts' median price target is $443.00 (+26%), from $247.00 to $639.00. Across 29 valuation methods the middle fair value is $162.88 (-54%); the DCF says $259.64.
Fair value by method
| Method | Low | Point | High | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regime-switching Monte Carlo 10th–90th | $112.32 | $205.53 | $475.90 | -41% |
| DCF — Monte Carlo 10th–90th percentile | $170.42 | $259.64 | $331.99 | -26% |
| P/E vs peers | $97.26 | $133.10 | $184.92 | -62% |
| P/E vs peers, weighted | $123.42 | $171.89 | $346.42 | -51% |
| P/E vs peers, matched | $88.10 | $103.01 | $120.08 | -71% |
| EV/EBITDA vs peers | $141.36 | $180.19 | $230.40 | -49% |
| EV/EBITDA vs peers, weighted | $179.21 | $223.91 | $268.11 | -36% |
| EV/EBITDA vs peers, matched | $137.75 | $144.86 | $174.78 | -59% |
| EV/Sales vs peers | $59.92 | $127.27 | $169.85 | -64% |
| EV/Sales vs peers, weighted | $125.44 | $168.26 | $200.66 | -52% |
Texas Pacific Land's latest quarter
Texas Pacific Land, Q3 2026: revenue $273M (+35% year over year), operating margin 76.0%, net earnings $167M, operating cash flow $192M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
What is the price target for TPL stock?
The median of 2 analysts' 12-month targets is $443.00, +26% from $350.92; the range is $247.00 to $639.00. The average rating is none.
What is Texas Pacific Land's fair value?
The fair-value methods on Filing Flows (DCF, Monte Carlo, peer multiples and others) put it between $5.32 and $443.00, with a middle value of $162.88 against a price of $350.92. Each method's assumptions are on the page.
Does Texas Pacific Land usually beat earnings estimates?
It beat the consensus EPS estimate in 60% of the quarters on record.
Is TPL stock a buy?
Filing Flows does not give advice. It shows what analysts expect, what each valuation method implies and the figures behind them, read from SEC filings, so you can judge for yourself.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.