Filing Flows › Targa Resources (TRGP) › Takeover & LBO
Is Targa Resources (TRGP) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($353.37 a share) would return a loss of about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $157.20 a share (−42% against today's $271.82). At $95.9B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.43× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $353.37 | today's $271.82 plus 30% |
| × shares | 215.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $76.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $19.8B | |
| − Cash | $143M | |
| + Other claims | $145M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $95.9B | 16.5× EBITDA of $5.8B |
| Fees | $1.9B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $32.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $65.8B | 67% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $19.0B | $6.1B | $2.5B | −$1.1B | $33.2B |
| Year 2 | $19.8B | $6.4B | $2.5B | −$1.2B | $34.3B |
| Year 3 | $20.6B | $6.6B | $2.6B | −$1.2B | $35.5B |
| Year 4 | $21.3B | $6.8B | $2.7B | −$1.2B | $36.7B |
| Year 5 | $22.0B | $7.0B | $2.8B | −$1.3B | $38.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 13.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $94.5B | |
| − Debt left | $38.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $56.5B | |
| Money multiple | 0.86× | on $65.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −3.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $271.82; the IRR reaches 20% at $157.20 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $299.00 | 1.0% |
| 20% | $326.18 | −1.1% |
| 30% | $353.37 | −3.0% |
| 40% | $380.55 | −4.7% |
| 50% | $407.73 | −6.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $18.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $5.8B | 32.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.7B | |
| Capital spending | $4.1B | |
| Debt | $19.8B | |
| Cash | $143M | |
| Share price | $271.82 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 4.7% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Targa Resources would cost about $360.16 a share, $77.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $326.18 | $70.2B |
| Median | 32.5% | $360.16 | $77.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $412.62 | $88.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.43× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Targa Resources' latest quarter
Targa Resources, Q3 2026: revenue $5.6B (+35% year over year), operating margin 19.6%, net earnings $658M, operating cash flow $1.4B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Targa Resources being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Targa Resources?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($353.37 a share) would return a loss of about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $157.20 a share (−42% against today's $271.82). At $95.9B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Targa Resources cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Targa Resources would cost about $360.16 a share, $77.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.