Filing Flows › Trimble (TRMB) › Takeover & LBO
Is Trimble (TRMB) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($84.42 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $46.11 a share (−29% against today's $64.94). Historically 3.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.64× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $84.42 | today's $64.94 plus 30% |
| × shares | 233.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $19.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.5B | |
| − Cash | $214M | |
| = Enterprise value | $21.0B | 25.1× EBITDA of $836M |
| Fees | $419M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $4.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $16.8B | 78% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.1B | $894M | $352M | $419M | $4.2B |
| Year 2 | $4.4B | $947M | $320M | $489M | $3.7B |
| Year 3 | $4.6B | $994M | $283M | $559M | $3.1B |
| Year 4 | $4.8B | $1.0B | $240M | $628M | $2.5B |
| Year 5 | $4.9B | $1.1B | $192M | $695M | $1.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 19.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $20.9B | |
| − Debt left | $1.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $19.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.14× | on $16.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $64.94; the IRR reaches 20% at $46.11 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $71.43 | 6.9% |
| 20% | $77.93 | 4.6% |
| 30% | $84.42 | 2.6% |
| 40% | $90.92 | 0.8% |
| 50% | $97.41 | −0.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $836M | 21.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $202M | |
| Capital spending | $26.7M | |
| Debt | $1.5B | |
| Cash | $214M | |
| Share price | $64.94 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 6.9% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Trimble would cost about $90.92 a share, $21.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $74.49 | $17.4B |
| Median | 40% | $90.92 | $21.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $104.03 | $24.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.64× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Trimble's latest quarter
Trimble, Q3 2026: revenue $967M (+7% year over year), operating margin 14.7%, net earnings $59.1M, operating cash flow $150M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Trimble being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Trimble?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($84.42 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $46.11 a share (−29% against today's $64.94).
What would a takeover of Trimble cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Trimble would cost about $90.92 a share, $21.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.