Filing Flows › Trinity Industries (TRN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Trinity Industries (TRN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($38.30 a share) would return about 10% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $19.87 a share (−33% against today's $29.46). Historically 4.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.92× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $38.30 | today's $29.46 plus 30% |
| × shares | 81.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $3.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $5.2B | |
| − Cash | $158M | |
| + Other claims | $2.5M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $8.2B | 8.0× EBITDA of $1.0B |
| Fees | $163M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $5.3B | 5.2× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $3.0B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.1B | $1.0B | $406M | $464M | $4.8B |
| Year 2 | $2.1B | $990M | $371M | $483M | $4.4B |
| Year 3 | $2.1B | $994M | $334M | $512M | $3.9B |
| Year 4 | $2.1B | $1.0B | $295M | $551M | $3.3B |
| Year 5 | $2.2B | $1.0B | $253M | $603M | $2.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 7.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $7.6B | |
| − Debt left | $2.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $4.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.61× | on $3.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 10.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $29.46; the IRR reaches 20% at $19.87 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $32.41 | 13.1% |
| 20% | $35.35 | 11.6% |
| 30% | $38.30 | 10.0% |
| 40% | $41.24 | 8.4% |
| 50% | $44.19 | 6.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.0B | 48.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $293M | |
| Capital spending | $53.5M | |
| Debt | $5.2B | |
| Cash | $158M | |
| Share price | $29.46 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -2.4% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 25% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Trinity Industries would cost about $41.24 a share, $3.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $33.79 | $2.7B |
| Median | 40% | $41.24 | $3.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $47.19 | $3.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.92× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Trinity Industries' latest quarter
Trinity Industries, Q3 2026: revenue $535M (+18% year over year), operating margin 17.9%, net earnings $17.6M, operating cash flow $66.3M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Trinity Industries being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Trinity Industries?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($38.30 a share) would return about 10% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $19.87 a share (−33% against today's $29.46).
What would a takeover of Trinity Industries cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Trinity Industries would cost about $41.24 a share, $3.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.