Filing Flows › Tenaris SA (TS) › Takeover & LBO
Is Tenaris SA (TS) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($76.51 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $39.02 a share (−34% against today's $58.85). At $82.0B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $76.51 | today's $58.85 plus 30% |
| × shares | 1,072.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $82.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $0 | |
| = Enterprise value | $82.0B | 28.3× EBITDA of $2.9B |
| Fees | $1.6B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $15.9B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $67.7B | 81% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $12.3B | $3.0B | $1.2B | $1.5B | $14.4B |
| Year 2 | $12.7B | $3.1B | $1.1B | $1.7B | $12.8B |
| Year 3 | $13.1B | $3.2B | $978M | $1.8B | $10.9B |
| Year 4 | $13.5B | $3.3B | $836M | $2.0B | $8.9B |
| Year 5 | $13.9B | $3.4B | $680M | $2.2B | $6.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 21.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $73.1B | |
| − Debt left | $6.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $66.5B | |
| Money multiple | 0.98× | on $67.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $58.85; the IRR reaches 20% at $39.02 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $64.74 | 3.9% |
| 20% | $70.62 | 1.6% |
| 30% | $76.51 | −0.4% |
| 40% | $82.39 | −2.2% |
| 50% | $88.28 | −3.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $12.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.9B | 24.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $616M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $0 | |
| Share price | $58.85 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 20% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Tenaris SA would cost about $77.98 a share, $83.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $70.62 | $75.7B |
| Median | 32.5% | $77.98 | $83.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $89.33 | $95.8B |
Tenaris SA's latest quarter
Tenaris SA, Q3 2026: revenue $3.1B (+4% year over year), operating margin 19.3%, net earnings $509M, operating cash flow $366M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Tenaris SA being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Tenaris SA?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($76.51 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $39.02 a share (−34% against today's $58.85). At $82.0B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Tenaris SA cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Tenaris SA would cost about $77.98 a share, $83.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 9, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.