Filing Flows › Tractor Supply (TSCO) › Takeover & LBO
Is Tractor Supply (TSCO) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($47.59 a share) would return a loss of about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $27.89 a share (−24% against today's $36.61). Historically 1.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.34× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $47.59 | today's $36.61 plus 30% |
| × shares | 521.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $24.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $150M | |
| − Cash | $199M | |
| = Enterprise value | $24.8B | 13.6× EBITDA of $1.8B |
| Fees | $495M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $10.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $15.2B | 60% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $16.5B | $1.9B | $768M | −$6.2M | $10.0B |
| Year 2 | $17.1B | $2.0B | $768M | $15.9M | $10.0B |
| Year 3 | $17.6B | $2.0B | $767M | $39.4M | $10.0B |
| Year 4 | $18.2B | $2.1B | $764M | $64.3M | $9.9B |
| Year 5 | $18.7B | $2.1B | $759M | $90.6M | $9.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 10.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $22.4B | |
| − Debt left | $9.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $12.5B | |
| Money multiple | 0.82× | on $15.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −3.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $36.61; the IRR reaches 20% at $27.89 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $40.27 | 2.0% |
| 20% | $43.93 | −1.2% |
| 30% | $47.59 | −3.8% |
| 40% | $51.25 | −6.1% |
| 50% | $54.91 | −8.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $15.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.8B | 11.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $518M | |
| Capital spending | $917M | |
| Debt | $150M | |
| Cash | $199M | |
| Share price | $36.61 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.5% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Tractor Supply would cost about $48.51 a share, $25.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $43.93 | $22.9B |
| Median | 32.5% | $48.51 | $25.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $55.57 | $29.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.34× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Tractor Supply's latest quarter
Tractor Supply, Q3 2026: revenue $3.9B (+5% year over year), operating margin 7.9%, net earnings $225M, operating cash flow $229M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Tractor Supply being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Tractor Supply?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($47.59 a share) would return a loss of about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $27.89 a share (−24% against today's $36.61).
What would a takeover of Tractor Supply cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Tractor Supply would cost about $48.51 a share, $25.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.