Filing Flows › Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) › Stock forecast & fair value
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) stock forecast and fair value
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) trades at $439.51. 20 analysts' median price target is $557.50 (+27%), from $440.00 to $1,000.00. Across 9 valuation methods the middle fair value is $584.39 (+33%); the DCF says $363.19.
Fair value by method
| Method | Low | Point | High | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF — Monte Carlo 10th–90th percentile | $252.96 | $363.19 | $506.02 | -17% |
| P/E vs peers | $946.80 | $1,833.94 | $3,124.81 | +317% |
| EV/Sales vs peers | $344.73 | $667.53 | $1,647.84 | +52% |
| Analysts' price targets | $440.00 | $584.39 | $1,000.00 | +33% |
| Outside view — base-rate Monte Carlo | $25.25 | $378.49 | $969.76 | -14% |
| Owner earnings capitalized | $84.41 | $94.42 | $107.11 | -79% |
| Graham formula (revised) | $1,026.03 | $1,215.45 | $1,404.87 | +177% |
| Lynch fair P/E (PEGY) | $1,276.59 | $1,499.77 | $1,722.95 | +241% |
| Earnings power value (EPV) | $351.67 | $383.83 | $422.46 | -13% |
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's latest quarter
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, FY2024: revenue $2.89T (+34% year over year), operating margin 45.7%, net earnings $1.16T, operating cash flow $1.83T. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
What is the price target for TSM stock?
The median of 20 analysts' 12-month targets is $557.50, +27% from $439.51; the range is $440.00 to $1,000.00. The average rating is strong buy.
What is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's fair value?
The fair-value methods on Filing Flows (DCF, Monte Carlo, peer multiples and others) put it between $94.42 and $1,833.94, with a middle value of $584.39 against a price of $439.51. Each method's assumptions are on the page.
Does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing usually beat earnings estimates?
It beat the consensus EPS estimate in 100% of the quarters on record.
Is TSM stock a buy?
Filing Flows does not give advice. It shows what analysts expect, what each valuation method implies and the figures behind them, read from SEC filings, so you can judge for yourself.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.