Filing Flows › Tyson Foods (TSN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Tyson Foods (TSN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($78.14 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $43.67 a share (−27% against today's $60.11). Historically 1.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.38× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $78.14 | today's $60.11 plus 30% |
| × shares | 355.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $27.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $8.0B | |
| − Cash | $740M | |
| + Other claims | $106M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $35.1B | 13.3× EBITDA of $2.6B |
| Fees | $702M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $14.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $21.3B | 60% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $57.3B | $2.7B | $1.1B | $524M | $14.0B |
| Year 2 | $58.9B | $2.8B | $1.1B | $590M | $13.4B |
| Year 3 | $60.7B | $2.9B | $1.0B | $661M | $12.7B |
| Year 4 | $62.5B | $3.0B | $972M | $737M | $12.0B |
| Year 5 | $64.3B | $3.0B | $916M | $820M | $11.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 10.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $33.2B | |
| − Debt left | $11.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $22.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.03× | on $21.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $60.11; the IRR reaches 20% at $43.67 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $66.12 | 5.3% |
| 20% | $72.13 | 2.8% |
| 30% | $78.14 | 0.6% |
| 40% | $84.15 | −1.3% |
| 50% | $90.16 | −3.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $55.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.6B | 4.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.4B | |
| Capital spending | $843M | |
| Debt | $8.0B | |
| Cash | $740M | |
| Share price | $60.11 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 2.9% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 27% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Tyson Foods would cost about $79.65 a share, $28.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $72.13 | $25.6B |
| Median | 32.5% | $79.65 | $28.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $91.25 | $32.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.38× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Tyson Foods' latest quarter
Tyson Foods, Q3 FY26: revenue $13.9B (-0.1% year over year), operating margin 2.6%, net earnings $186M, operating cash flow $640M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Tyson Foods being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Tyson Foods?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($78.14 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $43.67 a share (−27% against today's $60.11).
What would a takeover of Tyson Foods cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Tyson Foods would cost about $79.65 a share, $28.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.