Filing Flows › Trade Desk (TTD) › Takeover & LBO
Is Trade Desk (TTD) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($15.98 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 3.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.74× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $15.98 | today's $12.29 plus 30% |
| × shares | 469.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $7.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $1.5B | |
| = Enterprise value | $6.0B | 8.4× EBITDA of $713M |
| Fees | $120M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.9B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $2.2B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.2B | $770M | $299M | $110M | $3.8B |
| Year 2 | $3.4B | $822M | $291M | $142M | $3.7B |
| Year 3 | $3.6B | $867M | $280M | $172M | $3.5B |
| Year 4 | $3.8B | $904M | $267M | $201M | $3.3B |
| Year 5 | $3.9B | $931M | $252M | $228M | $3.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 6.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $5.6B | |
| − Debt left | $3.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.14× | on $2.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $12.29.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $13.52 | 14.3% |
| 20% | $14.75 | 8.5% |
| 30% | $15.98 | 2.7% |
| 40% | $17.21 | −2.1% |
| 50% | $18.43 | −5.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $713M | 23.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $127M | |
| Capital spending | $219M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $1.5B | |
| Share price | $12.29 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Trade Desk would cost about $15.98 a share, $7.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $13.76 | $6.5B |
| Median | 30% | $15.98 | $7.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $16.10 | $7.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.74× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Trade Desk's latest quarter
Trade Desk, Q2 2026: revenue $715M (+3% year over year), operating margin 14.2%, net earnings $64.4M, operating cash flow $154M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Trade Desk being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Trade Desk?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($15.98 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Trade Desk cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Trade Desk would cost about $15.98 a share, $7.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.